To The Daily Telegraph
Dear Comment:
While he's quite right about the fallacy of affirming the consequent—which
seems to inform most policy-making, not just BSE policy—perhaps Dr Ridley
will turn his attention in a future article to a null hypothesis rather than
an alternative theory of causation.
Quaere: Is new variant CJD the same as BSE? That its pathology appears similar (in the absence of much, if any, aetiological evidence) seems inadequate grounds to assume it. And: Is it an epidemic? Could it not be a rare sporadic disorder that is unchanged in its occurrence, but picked up more frequently—and now distinguished from its cousins—because of the recent research interest in prion diseases?
As for the Queniborough cluster—why not a statistical freak? If I win the
lottery, is that to be taken as evidence that I have a secret connection
with Camelot; and that they can fix it; and that they have, in my favour?
Best regards
Guy Herbert
